SWAT-based multi-index assessment of meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought characteristics in the Mekong River Basin

Anh Nguyen Quoc; Thi-Thu -Ha Nguyen; Phong Nguyen Thanh; Vuong Nguyen Dinh; Dang Duc Thanh; Nguyet -Minh Nguyen; Duong Tran Anh

doi:10.15625/2615-9783/25019

Author affiliations

Authors

Anh Nguyen Quoc 1-Laboratory of Environmental Sciences and Climate Change, Institute for Computational Science and Artificial Intelligence, Van Lang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam; 2-Faculty of Environment, Van Lang School of Technology, Van Lang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Thi-Thu-Ha Nguyen 1-Laboratory of Environmental Sciences and Climate Change, Institute for Computational Science and Artificial Intelligence, Van Lang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam; 2-Faculty of Environment, Van Lang School of Technology, Van Lang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Phong Nguyen Thanh 1-Laboratory of Environmental Sciences and Climate Change, Institute for Computational Science and Artificial Intelligence, Van Lang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam; 2-Faculty of Environment, Van Lang School of Technology, Van Lang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Vuong Nguyen Dinh 1-Southern Institute of Water Resources Research, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam; 2-Vietnam Academy for Water Resources, Hanoi, Vietnam
Dang Duc Thanh New Zealand Institute for Earth Science, Hamilton, New Zealand
Nguyet-Minh Nguyen 1-Laboratory of Environmental Sciences and Climate Change, Institute for Computational Science and Artificial Intelligence, Van Lang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam; 2-Faculty of Environment, Van Lang School of Technology, Van Lang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Duong Tran Anh 1-Laboratory of Environmental Sciences and Climate Change, Institute for Computational Science and Artificial Intelligence, Van Lang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam; 2-Faculty of Environment, Van Lang School of Technology, Van Lang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15625/2615-9783/25019

Keywords:

Mekong River basin, drought indices, SWAT model

Abstract

Drought has intensified across the Mekong River Basin (MRB) due to climate variability and increasing human interventions, creating substantial risks for water resources and agriculture. This study applied the SWAT model to simulate hydrological processes and evaluate meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts using the SPI, SSWI, and SRI indices. Model calibration (1982–2001) and validation (2002–2019) at seven hydrological stations produced satisfactory to very good performance, with R² values ranging from 0.80 to 0.89 and 0.52 to 0.69, respectively. The model effectively captured seasonal flow dynamics, although uncertainties increased toward downstream regions influenced by reservoir operations and land-use change. Analysis of precipitation and soil moisture revealed strong spatial contrasts among sub-basins: upstream areas exhibited limited infiltration and rapid drainage. At the same time, midstream and downstream regions retained soil moisture longer due to favorable topography and soil characteristics. Multi-decadal drought evaluation reveals several prominent drought periods from 1970 to 2000, consistent with major large-scale climate anomalies. Correlation analysis shows stronger linkages among drought indices at longer accumulation periods, indicating tighter coupling of drought processes under prolonged dry conditions. Overall, integrating SWAT simulations with multi-index drought diagnostics provides a robust framework for characterizing meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought dynamics, supporting improved drought monitoring and water resource management in the MRB.

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